Robinhood received a fresh vote of confidence today when Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its price target to $150 from $124.
The target implies substantial upside from the prior close, but the more important part of the call is the reason behind it. The firm is not simply betting on another burst of retail trading. It expects Robinhood to extract more value from the customers already on its platform by expanding into subscriptions, credit cards, banking, wealth management and other financial products.
That shifts the investment debate from trading volume to platform economics.
Key Takeaways
Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to Overweight and lifted its price target to $150 from $124.
The firm expects a 23% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2028 and sees EBITDA margins reaching 53%.
Robinhood’s latest results show growth across equities, options, subscriptions, deposits and newer businesses.
The biggest questions are durability, valuation, regulation and whether product expansion improves revenue quality.
What changed in the Wall Street view
Morgan Stanley’s new model calls for Robinhood revenue to reach about $8 billion by 2028, roughly 6% above consensus estimates. The firm also expects operating discipline to lift EBITDA margins to 53% from 48%.
Those forecasts describe a business with two engines. The first is continued customer and asset growth. The second is monetization: earning more from each relationship by adding products that generate recurring or repeat revenue.
The distinction matters because trading activity can be volatile. A broader platform may produce steadier economics if customers keep more assets with Robinhood and use it for more of their financial lives.
The latest numbers support the expansion thesis
Robinhood reported second-quarter net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% from a year earlier. Net income increased 48% to $573 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $741 million.
Transaction revenue remained important, but the mix was broader than a single market. Options revenue rose 29%, equities revenue rose 95%, and event-contract revenue increased more than tenfold. Net interest revenue grew 9%, and other revenue rose 54% with help from subscription and service activity.
Customer metrics also moved higher. Funded customers reached 28.4 million, total platform assets climbed 32% to $369 billion, and Gold subscribers increased 39% to 4.8 million.
Why assets may matter more than trades
Every brokerage wants more customer assets because assets can support multiple revenue streams. Cash balances may generate interest income. Securities can support lending activity. Advisory products can generate fees. Premium subscribers can create recurring revenue.
Robinhood recorded $21.7 billion of net deposits in the second quarter and $75.7 billion over the preceding twelve months. If that pace continues, the company can grow even when market activity becomes less intense.
The deeper strategic goal is to move from being an app customers open to place a trade into an account they use to save, spend, borrow and invest. That is a harder business to build, but potentially a more durable one.
The product flywheel
Robinhood now says it has thirteen business lines producing at least $100 million in annualized revenue. Its Gold subscription, credit card, desktop trading platform and banking products create more opportunities to keep customers inside the ecosystem.
Cross-selling can be powerful because the cost of acquiring an existing customer for a second product is generally lower than acquiring a new customer from scratch. It can also raise switching costs: the more financial activity housed on one platform, the less convenient it becomes to leave.
That is the core of Morgan Stanley’s thesis. Robinhood’s customer base becomes more valuable if the company can increase engagement without allowing expenses to rise at the same rate.
Why the margin forecast matters
A 53% EBITDA margin would imply meaningful operating leverage. Software-led platforms can scale efficiently because the incremental cost of serving another active customer is often lower than the revenue that customer produces.
Robinhood’s adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation rose 23% in the latest quarter, slower than revenue growth. That is constructive, but the company is also investing in new products and geographies while managing restructuring and acquisition-related costs.
The long-term margin outcome will depend on whether newer products reach scale and whether risk, compliance, support and marketing costs stay controlled.
The risks behind the bullish case
Robinhood is still sensitive to markets. Trading volumes, securities lending, customer cash balances and asset values can all change with investor sentiment and interest rates.
Regulation is another major variable. Payment for order flow, prediction markets, tokenized assets and new lending products can attract scrutiny. Expansion increases the opportunity set, but it also increases operational and compliance complexity.
Valuation can amplify both outcomes. A stock priced for rapid growth may react sharply if deposits slow, customer engagement weakens or expenses rise faster than expected.
Finally, diversification must be judged by revenue quality. Adding many products is not enough if they remain dependent on the same market cycle or require heavy incentives to gain adoption.
What investors should watch
Start with net deposits and total platform assets. They show whether Robinhood is winning a larger share of customer wallets. Gold subscriber growth and average revenue per user can indicate whether cross-selling is working.
Also watch the share of revenue coming from subscriptions, advisory, banking and other repeatable sources. A healthier mix would make the business less reliant on bursts of speculative activity.
Expense growth is equally important. The platform thesis becomes more valuable when revenue grows faster than the cost base over multiple quarters.
The bottom line
Morgan Stanley’s upgrade is a bet that Robinhood is evolving from a trading app into a broader financial platform. The latest operating data provide real evidence for that view: customers, assets, deposits and several product lines are all expanding.
The market will still demand proof that the growth is durable and that regulatory complexity remains manageable. If Robinhood can deepen customer relationships while preserving operating leverage, its next chapter may indeed be bigger than trading.


